Is Washington now ready for Africa?

We're only 3 months into 2009 and of the 4 changes (Ghana, Somalia, Guinea Bissau & Madagascar) at the helm of African governments so far this year, only 1 (Ghana) has taken place after democratic elections. I'm afraid that's a worrisome trend to start the year with, and I'm afraid there's more where that came from.

I remember when Barack Obama was elected US president, many were those among the African commentariat who said that this will signal to the old guard on the continent that Change was the new game in town. And I can't blame anyone who has been bowled over by Obama's emergence. But to think of it as a sign of things to come in Africa however, the reality on the ground - so far - shows that the signs are not looking good.

But things seem to be moving in forward in another area. Since Hillary Clinton came back from her 2nd set of foreign trips, she's began to find face time for African foreign ministers. First up was Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, South Africa's foreign minister who called at the State Department on Thursday, March 19. Next on the line will be Ojo Maduekwe, Nigeria's foreign minister who is due to meet Clinton today. Ahead of the meeting, a state department official quoted in Nigeria's Guardian newspaper referred to Nigeria as "the big boy in Africa." But expectations are being dialled down with talk of the meeting being more focused on multi-lateral issues such as Sudan than bilateral ones.

With Nigeria's US Ambassador having been recalled after a very public row with Maduekwe, I doubt how much if any groundwork has been done ahead of this visit. It remains to be seen if anything substantial comes out of this meeting on which the Minister is bringing along an entourage that includes the House and Senate Committee Chairmen on Foreign Relations as well as the Niger Delta Minister.

While Nigeria is going about it's affairs with Washington in typical boyish fashion, it appears to have relinquished the role of Africa's "big man" to South Africa. This will become clearer with the White House announcement on Friday of Johnnie Carson as the new assistant secretary of state for African affairs. Once he gets through his confirmation hearings, a key bellwether to follow will be where he touches down first on the continent - will it be Pretoria or Abuja?

What to expect in 2009

A belated Happy New Year to those who still make an attempt to visit this page after my rather long holiday from writing.

Two reasons for the long absence have been the pressures of my day job as well as the preparations for my wedding a few days before Christmas.

But while all that was going on, the wheels of global affairs and diplomacy were moving at a frenetic pace in Gaza, Guinea, Congo, Zimbabwe, Ukraine, Somalia, the US and on every continent in between.

While the attention of most in the Western world has shifted from Congo to Gaza, the West African state of Guinea witnessed the death of Lansana Conte, its long standing dictator two days before Christmas.

But rather than a constitutional regime change, army officers led by Captain Moussa Camara followed in Conte's footsteps to seize power amidst the political vaccum from the previous leader's death. However, most African states under the aegeis of the African Union & ECOWAS, as well as Western governments have denounced the coup and called for a 'return' to civilian rule via elections. As expected the coup leaders are digging in and appear to have the support of the rulers in Libya and Senegal.

Last week, they also recieved some support from an unlikely source - Ibrahim Babangida, ex military ruler of Nigeria and now ECOWAS special envoy to Guinea. Nigerian President & ECOWAS Chairman, Umaru Yar A'dua had sent Babangida on an assessment mission to Guinea, but on Babangida's return he made the following comments (as reported by the Nigerian Press)
"For God's sake they were patriotic to make sure that the country remains intact. From what we could see upon arrival at the country the people are on the side of the coupists, and it would be unfair to say they have come to power to stay. I think we as outsiders should put our acts together to help the new leadership of Guinea to get the country back to its feet as that is about the most important thing they need from all and not criticism."

As the Nigerian Foreign Minister, Ojo Maduekwe has taken the lead on applying the same punishment to Guinea as was done to Togo in 2005 and Mauritania in 2008 when they went down the coup d'etat route, Babangida's statements ran contrary to Nigeria's official line.

In a decision at the Head of States summit in Abuja on Saturday, ECOWAS suspended Guinea against the advice of its special envoy. Will this decision now make Babangida's position untenable? Especially since he also rubbished the efforts of the foreign minister with these words:
"The minister has no clue of what the situation really is on ground in Guinea. But aside that I'm only acting on the matching order of the president, therefore he is on his own."

There's an excellent analysis of this diplomatic faux pas here