Divining Obama's Africa Policy

A day after Hillary Clinton pledged to implement "smart power" diplomacy at her confirmation hearing, her husband and the former US President, Bill Clinton was in Abuja the Nigerian capital on what would be his third visit to Nigeria this decade and the 2nd since he left office.

This visit was his first foreign trip as the spouse of America's new top diplomat, and as such his words were being watched closely. He was in town to deliver the keynote speech at the Thisday Awards and he also paid a visit to President Yar A'dua.

While the media spotlight was on Clinton, the real action was elsewhere. At a panel discussion chaired by former Nigerian Foreign Minister, Bolaji Akinyemi in Abuja yesterday, political heavyweights from the outgoing Republican and incoming Democratic parties made the case for the Obama administration's Africa policy.

The Associated Press reports that panel member and outgoing Democratic party chair, Howard Dean said
"He will see an increased emphasis on Africa, not just because Barack Obama is an African American but because he hired some people in key positions who know and have worked on African issues."
Dean may be referring to people such as Susan Rice and Samantha Power, who are well known for their Africa expertise.

But this view was countered by another panelist, Karl Rove, a key player in the outgoing Bush administration once described by the Washington Post as "President Bush's eyes and ears." He was reported as saying "Africa was not at the center of American political dialogue this year."

He went on to say "Sure, Barack Obama talked about the genocide in Darfur but gave no indication of what he will do differently than the current administration. He, like the current administration, decried Mugabe, but he did not talk specifically what he will do differently," Rove said. "He talked about Somalia and the desire to have civil government, but again did not talk specifically about what he will do differently than the current administration."

So there you have what the old guard think. Old guard in that none of these panelists are seasoned Africa hands and more importantly, none will play any significant role in crafting or implementing Obama's policy towards Africa.

A better bet on defining what the future will look like would have been any of the 2 afore mentioned ladies who will play key roles in this area. An even better choice for the organizers whould have been Witney Schneidman, who is being touted as the man to suceed Jendayi Frazer as Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs.

He advised the Obama campaign on Africa policy and laid out the framework for Obama's policy toward Africa in this September article.

Here's the executive summary:

"Barack Obama will pursue three fundamental objectives on the continent.
- One is to accelerate Africa's integration into the global economy.
- A second is to enhance the peace and security of African states.
- And a third is to strengthen relationships with those governments, institutions and civil society organizations committed to deepening democracy, accountability and reducing poverty in Africa."

If the conventional wisdom holds true, then we will certainly hear a lot more from Dr Schneidman in the coming years. Watch this space!

Is America going Bananas, as in Banana Republic?

Christopher Hitchens thinks so.

He says:

"the ongoing financial meltdown is just the latest example of a disturbing trend that threatens to... put the Land of the Free and Home of the Brave on a par with Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Equatorial Guinea."

I just dig this graphic even if I don't agree with all of Hitchen's premise!

However, over at the Council of Foreign Relations, they've recently published a paper [pdf] by Brad W. Setser aptly titled Soveriegn Wealth and Sovereign Power. In it he makes the case that "America’s indebtedness limits her ability to influence other countries’ policies, for example through sanctions and lending arrangements."

Are we seeing the beginning of the end of the American Superpower? There's one major resemblance to Britain's decline as a superpower after Suez - the main creditor (America) effectively pulled the strings.

Will China do the same? Can China effectively do this?

The paper is well worth a read (all 69 pages of it). But if you can't, here's a money quote:

"A debtor’s ability to project military power hinges on the support of its creditors….In some ways, the United States’ current financial position is more precarious than Britain’s position in the 1950s…Britain’s main source of financing was a close political ally. The United States’ main sources of funding are not allies. Without financing from China, Russia, and the Gulf states, the dollar would fall sharply, U.S. interest rates would rise, and the U.S. government would find it far more difficult to sustain its global role at an acceptable domestic cost."

Maybe Hitchen's Banana republic isn't that far off.

[Hat Tip: Steve Coll]

Is Obama American, Kenyan or a Luo Tribal man?

Amid all the gloomy news from Kenya about shootings, tribal killings and genocide, there's news of a different kind coming thousands of miles from the Kibera slums of Nairobi.

It's the story of an American Dream about to fully come true ( and this story has got a Kenyan link) It's of none other than that of the Great Black Hope - Barack Hussien Obama!

Just before the Illinois Senator won the Iowa Caucus, Lynn Sweet wrote an interesting piece in his hometown paper about the direction his foreign policy experience (or lack of it) could take.

But while America and the rest of the world are savouring this moment with him, and contemplating what might be the beginiing of a long march to the White House, Ms. Sweet has situated Obama's first main diplomatic intervention within a tribal Kenyan context by saying : I understand Obama has to be careful because while he is one of the most credible figures the United States has to deal with Kenya, the dispute between Odinga and Kibaki is mired in tribal politics. Obama, very aware that Kenyans may see him as a Luo in this context, does not want to be seen as taking sides. (Raila Odinga is sitting in the photo above)
Obama has staked his identity as a plus over experience in burnishing his foreign policy credentials. Could this identity now prove to be his undoing in dealings with Kenya & Indonesia where he has family ties? Will he be seen as taking sides?
I wonder how Newsweek's Editor, Fareed Zakaria will respond to this seeming rebuttal of his expert claim that identity trumps experience in foreign policy dealings.